Ebola Prevalence

I am leaving in three weeks to do my research for my Masters thesis in Mali. I can't wait. However, something that has been on my mind lately is the ebola outbreak in nearby Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The media sure is talking a lot about it, and my family and friends are quite worried about this epidemic in West Africa.

But how much of an epidemic is it really? Well, there are about 21.6 million people in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the three countries most affected by the outbreak. In those countries, there have been 959 Ebola deaths as of August 8th, according to the Word Health Organization. That means that 0.0044% of the population died from Ebola since the start of the outbreak, in March 2014.

To compare that to US statistic, we had 32,482 fatal car crashes in 2011. Given our population of 316 million, in a five month period, the average American had a 0.0048% chance of dying in a car accident in 2011.

That means an American was just about as likely to die in a car crash in a 5 month period as a West African from Guinea, Sierra Leone or Liberia was to die from Ebola in the 5 months since the outbreak began.  Fatal car accidents are a real problem in America, and everyday we do things to minimize the chances of such a car accident happening to us - we drive carefully and soberly, and we wear seat-belts.  Similarly, Ebola is a real problem in West Africa, yet there are things you can do - I that I certainly will do - to minimize your exposure and make it a manageable risk.

Ebola is dangerous, and something the world should deal with quickly and decisively. But it is not rampant, just a fatal car accidents are not rampant here in America.